It's
possible that after more than half a century of animosity, India and Pakistan
could be on the path to lasting friendship. That path is strewn with obstacles,
many of them of Kashmiri origin, but just as the cricket matches are uniting
the people, so free trade, a concept also espoused at January's summit, could
prove a further catalyst to lasting peace and prosperity.
Both
India and Pakistan have long histories of economic introspection and
protectionism. Over the past decade, India has begun to throw off the shackles
of its socialist economic model, abandoning its discredited drive for
self-sufficiency and embracing globalization, privatization and trade
liberalization. The resulting economic boom has provided a burgeoning middle
class with unprecedented prosperity. Pakistan's government would do well to
learn from its neighbor's success.
India-Pakistan
trade relations have been compounded both by the tendency of each nation to
protectionism. Protectionism, for a long time the economic mantra, is cemented
and further justified by enmity. Trade between the two neighbors is restricted
to a limited number of items.
But
this situation has been economically destructive and has completely failed.
Indian goods supposedly banned by Pakistan are on sale openly in every corner
of the country. Smugglers provide Pakistanis with everything, from items such
as tea, betel nut, alcohol and cement, to the staples of industrial and
commercial activity like iron ore, chemicals, machinery and agricultural
products. Conversely, Pakistani food products and synthetic fibers can be
bought in India.
Inefficient
local producers, who are not subjected to the rigors of the competitive market,
gain from the embargoes, as do smugglers and black marketeers. Corrupt
law-enforcers can also access a stream of revenue from bribery and
racketeering. The interests of a minority are served under the banner of
localism, patriotism and nationalism, while the majority suffers.
In
a recent article on India-Pakistan trade, Shahid Kardar, a leading Pakistani
economist and former finance minister of Punjab province, put it this way:
"Should we continue to protect inefficient industry at the consumer's
cost? Is there any justification for continuing to punish him if industry in
Pakistan somehow just does not (or refuses to) grow strong enough to survive
competitive pressures?"
In
trade, producers and consumers behave like the citizens of the same country. To
them, the whole world is a market without borders. Producers will sell where
they get the maximum price for goods; consumers will buy from where they find
the lowest price. Tariffs and embargoes amount to government interference in
the free flow of goods -- to be circumvented where feasible. Illegal trade
between India and Pakistan is estimated to be worth $2 billion, much of which
is routed through countries like Dubai and Afghanistan.
What
Kardar, the son of the famous Pakistani cricket captain Abdul Hafeez Kardar and
nephew of equally famous wicket-keeper and batsman Imtiaz Ahmed, is talking
about here is good cricket -- a game played on a level playing field with
agreed rules; a game in which the only way to improve is to compete.
The
same goes for trade. Competing with rivals brings quality, low prices and
technological advancement. Free trade with India won't hurt anybody in
Pakistan. It will benefit Pakistan's consumers and sharpen the skills of
Pakistani entrepreneurs. And it will mitigate old enmities and help along
better relations between the two nations.
[This
article was originally published in Wall Street Journal Asia http://online.wsj.com/ on April 15, 2004.]
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